Electiony Goodness

[lynxreign]

I haven't made many posts on this subject, but I wanted to today because I have seen some evidence for one of my theories. I know a few of my friends here are given to despair about Obama's chances in the election, despite his widening lead. You fear the polls are wrong, for one thing.

I too think the polls are wrong, but in the other direction. Most polls are overestimating Republican turnout by weighting them more heavily in the sampling than is warranted by registration. The other mistake the polls are making is the question they're asking.

Most polls currently ask Obama or McCain. Obama has a solid lead in a two way race, but it isn't a two way race. There are Third Party Candidates this year, like every year. As Teddy Roosevelt, Ross Perot and Ralph Nader will tell you, they can have a profound effect on an election even if they don't capture a sizeable proportion of the vote. A poll from Colorado today illustrates my point.

When asked Obama or McCain, the poll results are
Obama - 51
McCain - 47
Undecided - 2
Nice. Obama clearly in the lead.

When asked who, including third party candidates, the results are
Obama - 50
McCain - 43
Barr - 3
Nader - 3
McKinney - 1

McCain drops 4 points while Obama only 1. If this pattern were to hold nationwide, Obama is in landslide territory, possibly even over the 383 I'm currently expecting for him.

It seems that when third party voters are asked the 2 person question liberals are saying "undecided" while conservatives are saying "McCain".

If Barr were to get more exposure nationally, or even in the battleground states, I'm betting his numbers would go much higher. Nader is polling around where he did last time, so I wouldn't expect a similar bounce for him even if he were to receive more attention.

EDIT: You know all the crap you hear the pundits spewing about how "Congress is deeply unpopular so the Democrats could be in trouble"? When tehy bother to break it down, Democrats in congress fare far better than Republicans in congress. In addition, there's this poll:

NYT/CBS poll, yesterday

In general, is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable or not favorable?

Favorable - 37%/Not Favorable - 54%

In general, is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable or not favorable?

Favorable - 52%/Not Favorable - 38%

Comments

[chaoticmoth.livejournal.com]

My fear is based on the same fear in the bottom of the ninth in the 2004 world series when the Cardinals got a single. I swore, Amy said, "It's okay", and I turned to her and vehemently exclaimed, "It's not okay! This is the Red Sox! They can still screw it up!".

And right now I feel like yelling, "It's not okay! This is the Democrats! They can still screw it up!"

So much could happen in the next three weeks, the American public is a fickle creature.

[lynxreign.livejournal.com]

The republicans are equally competant in screwing up elections.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

The wheels started to wobble in the '06 mids, but they've come off this time. I hope they're in enough disarray that they forget to send the strategy memo to Diebold so they don't know how to reprogram the voting machines properly, and the tampering is so glaringly obvious we can finally congressional hearings and get to the bottom that too.

[maps-or-guitars.livejournal.com]

Just remember - they've been that incompetent this time around. Remember this?

[artemis44.livejournal.com]

I hate to admit this, but I don't think I quite get this graphic... can you give me the backstory on it?

[lynxreign.livejournal.com]

The quote is attributed to "Famous Person"
It is an actual ad the Republicans ran after the VP Debate.
It is quite similar to the one they ran saying McCain won the first debate that they mistakenly released before the debate.

[maps-or-guitars.livejournal.com]

The McCain campain ran it the day after the Palin-Biden debate. It quotes Peggy Noonan, but still has the dummy text "Famous Person" in there.

This kind of crappy QC has been appearing an awful lot with camp McCain.

[lynxreign.livejournal.com]

I completely trust Famous Person.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

No, I don't know that one! Is that banner ad for real? Man, that's a lot worse than when they trotted out the 'McCain Won the Debate!' banner ad the morning of the first debate. That one just says, "not only will we turn 180º on our 'Obama is just a celebrity' line of attack ads from the beginning of the campaign, but we'll fabricate a quote and plug in an appropriate attribution later..."

And then, some schmuck places the ad as is. Wow. They really are clueless this time around. Man, the vaunted message discipline of the GOP machine is dead, buried, been crushed into oil, drilled baby drilled, refined in gas, and the car it fuels is being driven off a cliff! (how's that for a tortured metaphor for ya?)

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

"It's not okay! This is the Democrats! They can still screw it up!"

That's their mantra. That, and: "Stealing defeat from the jaws of victory since 2000."

[lynxreign.livejournal.com]

Just remember, the republicans managed to spend 40 yaers in the wilderness in Congress and held the presidency for only 8 years between 1932 and 1968.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

Yeah, but we can't afford the dems to be out in the political wilderness. Were just a couple of bad days away from having an end-times lovin' Pentecostal with her finger on the big red button.

[lynxreign.livejournal.com]

What I'm saying is: The republicans have a very long tradition of not being able to win an election. "Democrats can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" is Rove/Fox propaganda.

[emmalyon.livejournal.com]

I had not realized until my sample ballot came that Nader was not, in fact, the Green party candidate this year (it's the "Peace and Freedom" party or some such).
Judging from the signage and stickers I have seen both here and in NE, Ron Paul may still be a factor as well.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

I despair of Obama winning for three reasons:

1. After the last two cycles, I just don't trust polls anymore. At all. As the wise man said, "Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, won't get fooled again."

2. The fact it's not a total runaway. Obama should be up by thirty points given the utter disaster the last eight years under the Republicans have been. It's pissing me off that it took the financial crisis to get so many people to finally realize it, and to start seeing Obama pull away in the polls. Greed and selfishness trumps I guess. It's so sad.

3. Diebold. This is the big one. All it takes is for them to flip a few percent in a few states, and voila!

All that being said, take this my traditional conspiracy theorist grain of salt. I'm assuming Obama will win. But then again, I thought Gore and Kerry would too. Nothing will surprise me anymore. Not after seeing people lined up in Ohio in the rain in 2004 and discovering that OH! They were voting the status quo! Who would've thunk it! Shivver me timbers! It's a bloody miracle.

[lynxreign.livejournal.com]

2) I don't think anyone has even been up 30 points.

3) They'd have to flip quite a bit in quite a few states at this point. And I don't think they'd get away with it this time.

Sure, Republicans are playing their "Voter Fraud" (Secret plan: Don't let minorities and the poor vote) game, but it isn't working as well this time around. They're being challenged more and the media is reporting it more. Also, fewer places now use Diebold.

[lynxreign.livejournal.com]

Also, I'm thinking of putting a sign in my car that says "Question 1: Are you an idiot?"

[mekkasimian.livejournal.com]

MEK AGREE ALL THREE POINT.

BUT STILL ASSUME OBAMA LOSE.

=M=

[maps-or-guitars.livejournal.com]

You'll be so happy to be wrong.

Unless someone's got you covered on that bet we were discussing?

[mekkasimian.livejournal.com]

MEK WOULD BE HAPPY INDEED. BUT MEK REMEMBER VOTE IN OHIO BOTH 2000 AND 2004, WHERE EVEN EXIT POLLS *WOEFULLY* WRONG (PARTICULARLY SINCE POLLS SEEM SKIP RURAL AREAS MOST OF TIME).

AND NO, NOBODY COVER BET. WHAT SAY: EACH PUT UP BOTTLE OF FANCY BOOZE?

=M=

[maps-or-guitars.livejournal.com]

Sounds good. Either way it goes we'll be wanting to drink. What's your fancy? Something to the tune of a bottle of Plymouth? I'm not in the market for A. H. Hirsch...

[kaisilverwolf.livejournal.com]

What I'd heard from some people is that they suspect many people will say they'll vote for obama, but then when they're alone in that voting booth they'll balk at voting for someone who's not an old rich white man and vote McCain. And then lie to the exit poll on the way out.

[empress-schwa.livejournal.com]

I agree with MR-SIMIAN. We lived in Ohio and South Carolina and that opened my eyes to why the votes of the last twelve years have happened.

And after voting in OH in '00 and '04 and seeing all the dirty politics on just our local basis - my usual optimism doesn't exist when it comes to the election.

[maps-or-guitars.livejournal.com]

So, are you going to buy me a bottle of Hendrick's, too?

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

God, I hope the three of us are wrong. We can't afford to be right. Like I said somewhere else today, that would mean we're just a couple of bad days away from a Pentecostal with her finger on the 'Let's summon Jesus on his fiery chariot' button.